??Even though South Africa has strong trade deals with the European Union (EU) and is its biggest trading partner in Africa, the amount of agri-food trade with the EU is declining, largely because of growing trade barriers and related disputes. To reverse this decline, South Africa needs to shift its export focus, improve domestic infrastructure, and tackle non-tariff trade barriers (NTMs).
This is the call from researchers at Stellenbosch 中国体育彩票 (SU) and Mendel 中国体育彩票 in Brno, Czech Republic.
In a study published recently in the journal Agrekon, they explored how the EU's agri-food import practices may be harming the competitiveness of South Africa's agricultural sector. They used 20 years (1999 to 2019) of trade data and the Constant Market Share (CMS) model — a tool used in international trade to examine changes in a country's export performance over time — to investigate these impacts in the context of trade liberalisation and the recent slowdown in global agri-food value chains.
The researchers grouped agri-food products into four categories: bulk commodities, processed intermediate goods — products used in the production of other goods —, horticultural products, and consumer-ready goods. Citrus, grapes, wine, apples and pears, and avocados make up the top five agri-food exports to the EU.
They point out that horticulture is the leading agri-food category exported to the EU, according to 2019 data from Eurostat, the EU's statistical office. Horticultural exports grew significantly, rising from just over 58% of agri-food exports in 1999 to more than 65% by 2019. Between 1999 and 2019, consumer-ready goods made up the largest share of the EU's total agri-food imports, of which wine is the most important. Processed intermediate and horticultural products each accounted for around 15%.
The researchers also note that nearly half of the total EU agri-food imports go to Central European countries, with Northern and Southern EU countries each accounting for about 20%. The smallest but growing share is imported by the Eastern EU.
They say that while South Africa's agri-food exports to the EU have grown steadily over the past two decades, their study suggests that the trade environment is becoming increasingly challenging.
“Although exports increased between 1999 and 2019, growth slowed noticeably after the global financial crisis, a trend linked to the lingering effects of the recession and the rise of non-tariff barriers.
“Our findings also highlight shifting demand patterns within different parts of Europe. In the East, agri-food imports increased after countries joined the EU in the early 2000s and adopted liberalised trade and agricultural policies. But that initial momentum has tapered off, with annual growth falling from 6,5% to just 3,5% in the decade after the recession.
“A similar slowdown is evident in Southern Europe, where import growth dropped sharply – from 6,3% to 2,6% per year – suggesting that recovery in this region has been slower and more uneven. Meanwhile, the Central and Northern EU markets show more stable dynamics, but even here, growth has plateaued."
The researchers say this raises concerns that existing trade agreements, once viewed as a gateway to opportunity, are no longer sufficient to support the sector's development or long-term competitiveness in the EU.
They add that while South Africa remains a key supplier of agri-food products to the EU, it is increasingly competing in markets that are either saturated or growing more slowly.
The researchers say South Africa should prioritise agri-food products with rapidly growing demand — particularly horticultural products — and target fast-growing markets within the EU, such as emerging Eastern EU countries.
“Investment in critical infrastructure, such as container ports and electricity supply, is essential to lower transaction costs and reduce uncertainties, thereby enhancing competitiveness against subsidised EU producers. This will also support competition with other sources of supply available to the EU.
“Policymakers should engage in dialogue with EU counterparts to revisit NTMs, resolve disputes that limit market access, and explore ways to help local exporters adapt to stringent regulatory requirements."
The researchers add that South Africa should also explore fast-growing markets outside the EU — such as BRICS countries, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, and others — as potential trade partners. Once these promising markets have been identified, policymakers can help redirect agri-food exports, especially those in high demand, to both expanding EU and non-EU markets.
They note that despite the NTMs, disputes, and other challenges, the EU is still South Africa's most valuable trade partner. “The substantial trade surplus and foreign direct investment generated through EU trade highlight the broader development benefits of strong agri-food exports. These include job creation, the adoption of green and digital technologies, and improved market access — all central to current trade and development debates."
The researchers say they hope their study will help the country's agri-food industry and policymakers better understand its competitive position and identify strategic actions to enhance its export performance in the EU market.
- Source: Melissa van der Merwe, Ivo Zdráhal & Francois Lategan (22 Apr 2025): Trade or trap? The impact of EU trade policies on South Africa's agri-food exports, Agrekon, DOI: 10.1080/03031853.2025.2489934
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